May 12, 2006

Brazil vs. Bolivia

Under normal circumstances, the title of this post would simply mean that the two countries were facing each other in a soccer match. By no means, however, are these circumstances normal.

The story actually starts on December 18 of last year, when Evo Morales was elected president Bolivia. Much could be said about him. Suffice it to say that he is a radical socialist/nationalist in the Hugo Chavez tradition.

Bolivia is important to Brazil because of it's natural gas. More than half the gas used in Brazil comes from Bolivia. When Evo Morales took power, he pledged to nationalize the multinational corporations which were "plundering" Bolivia, and drive out the imperialists. This sounded like a good idea to most Brazilians at the time, because "multinational corporations" and "imperialists" are synonyms for the US.

On May 1, Evo Morales sent troops to take over all the foreign-owned gas opperations. Suddenly, the airwaves here in Brazil were carrying images of Brazilian assets being comandeered by Bolivian troops, like the one below.

The disbelief on the part of the Brazilian government--and President Lula in particular--was amazing to see. After all, Lula had been a strong supporter of Morales during the Bolivian presidential races. He had not expected to be repaid in this fashion. The report here was that after the hostile takeover, Lula phoned Morales and expressed his displeasure in no uncertain terms.

Strong words, however, are as close as the Brazilian government got to defending the the tremendous investment they have made in Bolivia over the years. There was an emergency summit last Thusday to discuss the events. After the event--which was attended by Lula, Evo Morales, Argentine President Nestor Kirschner, and (surprise, surprise!) Hugo Chavez--Lula made the following address to his people here in Brazil:

"We are not going to retaliate against a country that is much poorer than Brazil, with more hungry people than Brazil. I know that there are some who think we should take a hard line position. But we are peaceful, we want to reach an agreement. That is the best thing Brazil can do,"

In other words, if you are poorer than us, you can rob us blind and pretty much get away with it.

Brazil's inaction is not lost on Morales. In the same way that Hitler interpreted Allied vascilation as the green-light to gobble up much of Europe, Morales now has his eyes on other Brazilian interests in Bolivia. Brazilian farming opperations in the country are worried that they might be his next target. In the "accord" reached last week, Bolivia agreed to pay for assets seized from Petrobras. Now, Morales is saying that compensation is not forthcoming. He has even gone so far as to complain about the Brazilian purchase of the state of Acre from Bolivia at the beginning of the 20th century. Is that on his list as well?

Brazilians are not liking this one bit. Only the radical leftists think this is a good situation, and even they recognize the precarious position in which Lula finds himself. The cover of this week's Veja Magazine (pictured below) shows Lula with an oily footprint on his backside, and the headline "That Hurt".

Unless some definitive action is taken against Chavez and Morales, it is going to hurt alot more in the future.

Posted by Andrew on May 12, 2006 7:33 AM.